Adil shah blog’s

It is said that war is no picnic, there are many examples from the past. World war II was fought from 1939-1945 with over 70 million fatalities. The Napoleonic Wars, provoked by the French Revolution of 1789 and the 1812 Russian invasion turning into a disaster and taking 6.5 million lives are only some examples to begin with. Not only human loss but economical crises are evident. wars are never won they are facile to start with but results are unforeseeable.
We cannot predict the aftermath of India-Pakistan confrontation, the exact calculations cannot be drawn because both countries have sufficient machinery, manpower, logistic support, and tactics of modern warfare.
The recent killing of more than 40 Indian soldiers in Jammu and Kashmir by a suicide bomber belonging to the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) militant group in Kashmir’s Pulwama district has put Pakistan and India into a confrontation. Tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours have been high following an attack on Indian troops in Kashmir. In retaliation, India has not only withdrawn Most Favoured Nation Status (MFN) from Pakistan but has also announced that it will take important steps to completely isolate Pakistan internationally.
Following the attack, while blaming Pakistan for using its soil to promote proxy war India decided to cross LOC with a pre-dawn air strike by Indian Air Force (IAF) in Balakot, Pakistan, early Tuesday. India claimed to have targeted Militant base of Jaish-e-Mohammad but was quickly refuted by Pakistan. Pakistan provided evidence of payload being dropped by Indian aircrafts in haste while escaping. This was later confirmed by BBC, Reuters and The telegraph with no report of casualties.
It was time for Imran khan the prime minister of Pakistan to address his nation and strike back as demanded by the audience of his favor, opposition pledged allegiance to Imran khan as the country was facing a major embarrassment on its sovereignty. All the defence establishments in Pakistan were sure about a close faceoff. The emergency meeting was called by the prime minister of Pakistan and a decision was taken to surprise india, Indian forces were on high alert expecting retaliation from Pakistan, media was buzzing with misinformation, Indian prime minister Narendar Modi didn’t show off for a press conference, as he was not ready for questions from media because there were a lot of contradictions coming in from Govt statements with respect to the Balakote strike, International media had already clarified that Indian claims of hitting Militant Camps are botched, paving way for chaos across the country. There was a lot of communication gap between the govt and citizens of India, the only source of information was Indian media which was providing misinformation and scripted stories. Indian and Pakistani media channels were busy in fighting war from the studios not realising the sensitivity of the issue while some people had realised zed the complications of the war from both sides of the border and pleaded for restraint from both sides.
As the pressure was mounting on Imran khan to act, it was time for him to show his diplomatic and strategic capabilities in such crises, Imran khan was very vocal and addressed his nation very frequently after every development which is very important for managing crises. Pakistan’s DG ISPR Major General Asif Ghafoor while attending two press conferences in two days hinted at surprise retaliation from Pakistan further escalating the standoff between the two countries.
Imran khan had a choice, he could have targeted the military installations in Indian side of Loc to prove his ability to strike back. But no one could have imagined the consequences of such strike, it could have escalated the standoff to such a point that it was nearly impossible for both the countries to avoid a full fledged war .India is an emerging economy with huge Foreign Direct Investment, balanced GDP and good reserves, Having such a large service sector base and domestic produce it will not take much time for India to recover from an economic crises. But for Pakistan which is already on Grey list of FATF, having less reserves, unhealthy balance of payments, and its currency struggling at 139 rs per Dollar it was very important for Pakistan to avoid any escalation. Pakistan having 100 billion plus in debt and its initiative for two Dam projects could not be served if it is pushed into a war, for Pakistan to prosper as an economy it was very important to de-escalate because If Pakistan is engaged into a war at this time they will have to move all of their resources to the forefront of destruction, Pakistan would have lost all the chances to balance its payments and gain a strong currency against USD.
Imran khan took a decision to hit non military deserted targets in India without crossing LOC and gave a message that Pakistan Armed Forces have capability and resolve, as this was done Indian jets scrambled and followed Pakistani jets in retaliation but an ambush was already laid which led to downing of two Indian jets and capture of Mig21 Pilot WC Abhinandan. Now the ball was in Pakistan’s court giving Imran khan another chance to negotiate, this has to be said that the plan gave Pakistan two leverages, Pakistani audience was satisfied with the retaliation and no casualties were made across the border which gave India no reason to respond. This was a very wise pick. And the very next day Imran khan decided to release the captured soldier as a goodwill gesture. Imran khan achieved a moral high ground and delivered a diplomatic reverse swing. In terms of optics Imran khan stole the show from PM Modi, gained upper hand strategically by releasing PoW unconditionally. Pakistan was saved from a war which otherwise would have deteriorated the economic health of Pakistan.
US president Donald trump hinted at attractive developments coming in from Pakistan and India, Saudi Deputy FM announced he is coming with an important message from MBS to Pakistan this hinted about behind the scene informal conversations between Pakistan US KSA and UAE which further makes Imran khan a strong contender for Global Statesman.
Imran khan received a backlash from some of the influential political and defence analysts from Pakistan knowing that Indian media will cook up another deceiving argument and IK will loose a chance to negotiate deals. But negotiating a PoW could have put another scar on pakistans global face.
In a much broader perspective IK saved the country from a disaster and came in line with nobel peace price endorsers.

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